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--- weather [2025/02/09 16:27]
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+++ weather [2026/06/07 15:43] (current)
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 <WRAP indent>
-It's not the weather app so much as the model that you choose to use with the app that really matters. In Bellingham, in our experience, the European model (ECMWF) definitely seems to be the most reliable. But these models seem to be most challenged during significantly unsettled weather - particularly in exactly predicting WHEN changes will occur ( or even reach our small zone of usual downwinding if we are just on the edge of some moving system). Know something about which model(s) your app is using (default model, how to change the default, etc.) - we still see long time boating locals who rely too much on the wrong weather prediction models within the apps that they use.
+**It's not the weather app so much as the model that you choose to use within the app that really matters**. In Bellingham, in our experience, the European model (ECMWF) definitely seems to be the most reliable. But these models seem to be most challenged during significantly unsettled weather - particularly in exactly predicting WHEN changes will occur ( or even reach our small zone of usual downwinding if we are just on the edge of some moving system). **Know something about which model(s) your app is using (default model, how to change the default, etc.) - we still see long time boating locals who rely too much on the wrong weather prediction models within the apps that they use.**
-  * [[https://youtu.be/lDNK3iKMu9k|Video Description of Models Used for Forecasts 6/2020]]
+   * [[https://youtu.be/lDNK3iKMu9k|Video Description of Models Used for Forecasts 6/2020]]
   * [[https://blog.weather.us/category/tutorial-videos/|Educational Weather Blog]] - blog.weather.us (North and South America)
   * [[https://weathermodels.com/|Become a Weather Modeling Wonk]] - weathermodels.com (North and South America)
@@ Line 36: / Line 36: @@
 One fundamental aspect of using **weather apps and weather websites**  is to understand that **none of them are perfect**. With use you can learn to identify local weather patterns for which the apps tend to have greater accuracy and patterns which present problems for them (and consequently should lead you to the clear understanding that such problematic patterns result in less predictable conditions on the water and the potential of increased risk for you).
-More than a few folks look at "forecasts" a tad **too specifically**  in terms of **time and location**. If you also look at the map forecast and see that you will be on or near the edge of a clearly or potentially moving system or look at the forecast for the time after you planned outing and see that you are on or close to boundaries of change then you really have no business planning on the exactness and perfection of your forecast after you are on the water. If the forecast model you use usually comes within a decent range of actual weather you encounter and your downwind is predicted to be well within the boundaries of a given predicted weather system, then the forecast there is more likely to be reliable. But always use your own senses and pay attention to what you actually see before and during your paddles AND respond to conditions of** potential risk as soon as you become aware of them**.
+More than a few folks look at "forecasts" a tad **too specifically**  in terms of **time and location**. If you also look at the map forecast and see that you will be on or near the edge of a clearly or potentially moving system or look at the forecast for the time after your planned outing and see that you are on or close to boundaries of change then you really have no business planning on the exactness and perfection of your forecast after you are on the water. If the forecast model you use usually comes within a decent range of actual weather you encounter and your downwind is predicted to be well within the boundaries of a given predicted weather system, then the forecast there is more likely to be reliable. But always use your own senses and pay attention to what you actually see before and during your paddles AND respond to conditions of** potential risk as soon as you become aware of them**.
+If you check out **discussion boards for boaters and sailors**  you may be able to find some well informed discussions about models and apps, particularly about the **higher end features their paid versions**  provide and how useful users have found them for trip planning, extended trips, etc. in specific areas.
 </WRAP>
@@ Line 42: / Line 44: @@
 ----
-==== Websites, Apps ====
+==== Watching for Weather Changes (When You Are Close to Or On the Water) ====
-[[https://www.ventusky.com/?p=48.666;-122.595;10&l=wind-10m|Ventusky - Wind, Rain and Temperature Maps]]
+<WRAP indent>
+**Peter Marcus's Advice in Bellingham**
+) See any dark lines right on the horizon which isn't very far away from us because we are only sitting about four feet above the surface, maybe a pleasure/fishing boat pounding into the waves and wind in the distance.
+) A strong wind approaching will have a mist line above it, almost always there, moisture swept up above the surface like a very faint see-through fog.
+) Clouds….sneak a peak up, compare them to a permanent object,(different shapes tell different stories), like a surfski paddler sitting on a rock….get a feel for how fast the cloud is traveling.
+) okay, maybe four things….wave shape and pattern, 15 mph SE might have that Post Point chop, especially going over the reef right their, but if their is a little bigger mini roller under certain sets of waves or under that slop, it might be suggesting something from the distance…..so resort back to 1)
+</WRAP>
+----
+==== Websites, Apps ====
-  * [[https://www.windfinder.com|Windfinder]]
-  * [[https://forecast.predictwind.com/|PredictWind ]]- requires login but you can save two locations for free, use website or IOS, Android apps
-  * [[https://www.windy.com/|Windy]] requires free registration to save favorite locations. Will also send you alerts of weather conditions you specify
-  * [[https://wx.ikitesurf.com/|iKitesurf]]
   * [[https://www.buoyweather.com/forecast/marine-weather/@48.64,-122.51|Buoy Weather]] (initial view is located just west of Wildcat Cove, south of Bellingham)
+  * [[https://wx.ikitesurf.com/|iKitesurf]]
+  * [[https://forecast.predictwind.com/|PredictWind ]]- requires login but you can save two locations for free, use website or IOS, Android apps
+      * What you get with a [[https://www.google.com/search?q=what+do+I+get+with+a+basic+predictwind+subscription&sxsrf=ANbL-n5RBps48xK4YVtRN-CzDHpUrICZHQ:1774027605647|"basic" PredictWind subscription]] (higher levels are "standard", and "professional")
+  * [[https://spotwx.com/|SpotWx]]
   * [[https://tempestwx.com/map/47.9292/-120.8313/7|Tempest Weather Stations]] map with personal weather station reports
+  * [[https://www.ventusky.com/?p=48.666;-122.595;10&l=wind-10m|Ventusky - Wind, Rain and Temperature Maps]]
+  * [[https://www.windfinder.com|Windfinder]]
+  * [[https://www.windy.com/|Windy]] requires free registration to save favorite locations. Will also send you alerts of weather conditions you specify
+      * What you get with a [[https://www.google.com/search?q=what+do+I+get+with+a+premium+windy.com+subscription&oq=what+do+I+get+with+a+premium+windy.com+subscription&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQLhhA0gEJMTU5ODlqMGo0qAIAsAIB&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8|"premium" Windy subscription]] (the windy app has a "pro" level option)
   * [[:mobile_marine_apps_websites|2016 Extended Table of Marine Apps & Websites]] - Navigation, weather, tides, ship traffic, water conditions
   * **Pacific Northwest**
       * [[https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/|Cliff Mass Blog]]
-      * [[https://ovs.com/wx-cafe|Weather Cafe]] Rufus La Lone - Longer range forecasts
       * [[https://www.youtube.com/@PacificNorthwestWeather|Pacific Northerwest Weather Youtube Channel]]
+      * [[https://ovs.com/wx-cafe|Weather Cafe]] Rufus La Lone - Longer range forecasts
       * **Buoy Data**
-        * [[https://nvs.nanoos.org/Explorer?snapshot=6d298656ba2a1ae6f7f4a678e1a25|NVS Data Explorer]] (address opens to PNW)
         * [[https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml?lat=48.256282&lon=-123.507248&zoom=8&type=oceans&status=r&pgm=&op=&ls=n|National Data Buoy Center]] (address opens to PNW)
+        * [[https://nvs.nanoos.org/Explorer?snapshot=6d298656ba2a1ae6f7f4a678e1a25|NVS Data Explorer]] (address opens to PNW)
       * …
@@ Line 93: / Line 115: @@
 ==== Resources ====
-  * **Arguing About the Weather/Waves m( **
+  * **General Weather Discussions & Resources**
-      * [[:stories:wtf_system_september_2015|2015]]
+      * **Arguing About the Weather/Waves m( **
-  * [[https://www.starpath.com/catalog/books/books_index.htm|Starpath Books List]]
+        * [[:stories:wtf_system_september_2015|2015]]
+      * **Books**
+        * [[https://www.mountaineers.org/books/books/marine-weather-pocket-guide-a-field-reference|Marine Weather Pocket Guide/Field Reference]] Jeff Renner
+        * [[https://www.starpath.com/catalog/books/books_index.htm|Starpath Books List]]
+      * **Home Weather Stations**
+        * [[https://pwsdashboard.com/|Personal Weather Station Dashboard]]
+        * [[https://shop.tempest.earth/products/tempest|Tempest Weather Stations]]
+      * **Social Media **see [[:blogs|Paddling Related Social Media]] (just about any paddling related social media will include questions and discussions concerning weather)
   * **Pacific Northwest Weather**
-      * [[https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295748443/the-weather-of-the-pacific-northwest/|Cliff Mass Book]]
+      * **Books**
-      * [[https://www.amazon.com/Wind-Came-All-Ways-Understand/dp/0660175177|Wind Came All Ways]] excellent resource for understanding Pacific Northwest wind and waves - seems to be out of print and hard to find or very expensive. You may be able to find it in a library although it seems more prevalent in Canadian libraries than in the USA. There is a CD available that includes some of the same information. [[https://www.starpath.com/catalog/software/1876cd.htm|Order CD]]
+        * [[https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295748443/the-weather-of-the-pacific-northwest/|Cliff Mass Book]]
+        * [[https://www.amazon.com/Wind-Came-All-Ways-Understand/dp/0660175177|Wind Came All Ways]] excellent resource for understanding Pacific Northwest wind and waves - seems to be out of print and hard to find or very expensive. You may be able to find it in a library although it seems more prevalent in Canadian libraries than in the USA. There is a CD available that includes some of the same information. [[https://www.starpath.com/catalog/software/1876cd.htm|Order CD]]
+      * **Social Media **  (more places to ask questions about PNW weather and wind)
+        * [[https://www.facebook.com/groups/608389315944697/|Northwest Kiteboarders]] (facebook)
+        * [[https://groups.io/g/nw-windtalk|Pacific Northwest Windsurfing]] (groups.io)
   * …

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