David Jacobson's COLD WATER SELF CHECK (references Bellingham, WA primarily - adjust for your locale)
1. Skills - #1 no doubt, can not fake them, period.
Doesn't matter if you're the best or worst flatwater junkie, wind and waves are a different story. Most of us know many sagas of people not having them (skills) - and honestly (and probably rightly so) it's a hard reputation to shake once someone gets it.
Dawid Mocke crashed in our basement for a week this summer and we had several fruitful conversations regarding how to evaluate yourself and your skills when it comes to cold open water paddling. To summarize, it's important for individuals to practice and become proficient in paddling well in challenging conditions that don't have huge consequences. He liked what I call THE SLOP TEST - what does the peanut gallery think?
The final sections of the Wednesday Night Race Course between the condos and the final turn has plenty of rebound when it's blowing 20 plus from the south - nice & sloppy.
Folks ready to step it up to our less forgiving play pen - Bham bay when it's cold & blowing - then come prove you're ready in the SLOP TEST (Bellingham version) - certify yourself. Do loops between the last turn marker and one of the buoys off the condos. If a person can paddle well, catch some of the angle rides, and feel balanced in the slop, then this might be a good indicator you're ready for the bay. Maybe if you can handle the slop test when it's blowing 30 from the south, take it down ten notches and maybe 20 is a good upper mark for the windy/cold bay? Thoughts??
2. Judgment - can't fake it - but luckily all of us can get better at it!
Seems like poor outcomes most often result from several poor decisions in outdoor recreations, especially statistically if you're male (interestingly, I think you're even more likely to make use of public media/ and or gadgets like Go-Pro). Putting on close to dark, paddling a boat you're comfortable (or not) in sloppy/windy conditions, etc, all adds to the equation.
Blowing 20 from the SW on the bay is totally different 20 from the SE, or even 20 from the south with hints of an east push for that matter. Also, relying, let alone trusting, any forecast on the bay in the winter is iffy at best. If you're out on the bay in any wind in the winter - you should be ready for anything - plain and simple. As we say in the emergency room, don't wonder how you got pregnant after you go into the hot-tub! Be prepared.
3. Right Equipment
Solid leash, good lifejacket, visible outer layer, correct combo of cold water clothes, radio/cell phone, ski that is stable for you in mixed conditions, maybe a whistle and flare - those are probably in the minimum to go out safely on the bay when it is blowing & cold.
4. Group Etiquette
This is probably the hardest thing for a paddling group/community to do - but I honestly have full faith the Bham community can do it, that's who we are and what makes us unique. Case in point: when I was a new pup in the sport I rocked down San Francisco with Goolsby, Reivers, and LB for a week of paddling leading up to US Champs. Other than drinking too much light beer in random cheap hotel parking lots, talking smack (ie politics), and forgetting to tie down the club double on the way back until we hit Oregon (oops), we had each others back - or more correctly - those three salty guys had the new kids back. Our first paddle under the Golden Gate out to Potato Patch was proof - I was always glued to what felt like jumping distance to one or more of them at all times. When we finished the paddle, Larry asked what I thought about the seals I paddled within five feet of at the deep blue turn buoy - good indication that the sharks were also in for the week. I said 'what f—ing seals?' He popped out his camera and flicked through the pics of me rounding the buoy close enough to touch them - I was too new and too gripped to see them. Needless to say, the three salty paddlers I was escorted by definitely had my newbie back.
I think the the right etiquette is priceless, anything less may be a liability. If paddlers look out for each other, someone can tell another person that they aren't ready for the current conditions without ego involved, taking less experienced folks on tamer runs (maybe a lake run or loops on the slop test for example), etc - anything less and we might be dragging someone/ yourself our to a place you don't belong. Paddling with a partner means staying within range of them if that is what I set up, meeting at check-in point is not optional - ie don't blast past it if you're in front and think the others will catch up. if you can't stop and wait/loop back for someone, maybe you shouldn't be out there. Paddling within our community needs group smarts - none of us our going for any medals out there.